Jun 23 2009
The Air/Monster situation
Note: The following might seem quite a bit for a newer player, but it is a simple case that shows how a simple hand can be analyzed and how it can develop into so many different possibilities. It will be a great chance for the newer players to learn about different areas as well. Take your time and ask any questions that you have :) You might want to save yourself 10 to 20 minutes to read and try to think about this hand.
For those that didn’t read my last post, this is what happened: http://pokerguy.today.com/2009/06/22/interesting-hand/
Thank you guys for your feedback. Before moving on to what actually happened in the hand from the previous post, let’s analyze the situation:
1. He limps, called my 4x BB bet preflop. conclusion: of course nothing can be concluded, but we can educatedly guess his range: small to medium pocket pairs; suited connectors (connecting cards with the same suit); Ax suited; 2 face cards. He can of course have retarded hands like 49o, but as poker players we can just assume with our best guesses and proceed with exceptions in mind.
2. Flop 678 rainbow. He checks. I have 2 options, check behind, or fire a bet of about half the pot to try to take it (also known as a continuation bet), which is pretty standard. However, the 678 rainbow board is not very favorable as people, especially at the lower stakes, like to find reasons to call and this board can convince a lot of people to call (incorrectly). Someone with a pair might call to see if I am bluffing, a 5 or a 9 might go for the straight, a hand like JQ might think that the board missed me and he can win by hitting his cards. I feel like I won’t be winning often enough here, so I opt to check.
Him checking really doesn’t tell me much. It would be pretty rare for him to bet there. I can see him betting if he has a hand he wishes to protect from draws, such as A8 or 89. But those types of hands are often checked as well.
3. Turn is a 2s, giving me a 4-flush. He checks. This check gives us a little bit more information. He has now given up on 2 chances to bet. If he has a hand such as K8, he probably wants to bet now to make sure an overcard like a J doesn’t come and bite him in the butt. If he has a hand like 66, he might take note of my check on the flop and try to make some money now. Same thing with hands that he believe is strong. There is no guarantee that I will bet if he checks, so if he checks he might have to face a tough decision to extract money out of me when the pot is small.
With a 4-flush, my hand is suddenly much more powerful. However, I think I should just check again here. My hand is pretty strong (2 overcards, nut flush draw), but right now all I have is ace high. If I bet, he might check-raise me with a strong hand and I would have a tough decision to make. Betting doesn’t really serve too much of a purpose, as the hands that I was afraid of on the flop are equally as scary since the turn card, 2, is harmless. Only good sides of this bet is that a) it helps knock out hands such as JT or maybe A6 and b) if I hit my flush, the pot will be bigger and I can try to extract more money.
4. He calls. He is telling me he has something. What he has is a huge question mark. Chances of him having a powerhouse such as 88 is less likely as I think most people would raise here. Otherwise he would have to bet first on the river anyway, might as well raise here and force some weaker river hopeful hands to call. Also if I have a hand like 89, I might be willing to push it all-in here against his 66 whereas if he just call and the river comes a scary K, he would bet and I would fold my 89 to any significant bet.
5. Turn is an ace. He checks. He checks again, once again showing weakness. If he has a hand here, usually he would bet and not let me check behind. 3 checks in a row, I can pretty much lock him in on a hand like pair of 7s or 8s or a pair + straight draw such as 89. A flush draw is also a possibility.
Pretty much putting him on that range, I think I have to bet here. I don’t see hands like 88 or 77 checking flop, turn, AND river. Only hand that might call and lose to is a hand like 2 pair such as 67 or A6. I think those hands would bet on turn/river.
6. I bet half the pot. He shoves allin. *blank stare*
This is what is known as the air/monster type situation and I have exactly what is in between. The way he played the river (checked, then reraise all-in) usually means only one of two things: a) he has a monster and he wanted to show weakness so I would bet, and then he come over the top to try to extract money or b) he has absolutely nothing, and he is trying to bluff me out. Why, you might ask, won’t he have a mediocre hand? A mediocre hand would be a hand such as top pair, like my hand. If he has my hand in his situation, he has about 2600 and I bet about 300, he would simply just call. Reason behind this is that it is very unlikely that if he goes allin, I would call with a hand weaker than mediocre, while I would call with a hand stronger. Noting that, it is pointless for him to risk his chips because if he goes allin and I fold, he makes the same exact amount as just calling and winning.
That’s the Air/Monster situation. What is considered a monster hand is subjective. In this case, I had to make a decision in about 30 seconds. Multitabling 7 tables at that time, I just rushed through it quickly with a few factors in mind:
a. He checked checked checked: hard to believe he has a set or flopped straight and would check both turn and river.
b. pot odds: there is 950 in the pot, he reraise for about 2300 more. Every time I win, i win 3250; every time I lose, I lose 2300. Pot odd is about 3:2. I need to be correct about 2 out of 5 times to break even (if I am correct 2 out of 5 times, I win 3250 x 2 and lose 2300 x 3 which is about the same).
c. chance of him bluffing: seems like I would fold any hand that doesn’t have an ace in it. decent chance
d. If I fold, I have 2300, if I win, I have about 6000. I can easily live with 2300. 6000 is not really that huge of an advantage with my playing style.
A leans towards calling while D favors folding. B and C seems about even, so I decided to gamble.
Result: He flipped over the flopped nut straight 9To for the winning straight.
In retrospect, I probably should’ve folded because I would still have 2300 if I lose in the first stage of the tournament. That’s way better than the original 1500 stack. Whether or not the chances of him bluffing there is higher or lower than 40% is debatable. 40% might be a little too high.
It is however tough to believe that he would play his hand this way. A check check check is quite dangerous, especially if you don’t know how to fold. Just a couple of problems I have with his check-check-check.
a) flush draw on the turn. He failed to protect his straight and if the flush hits the river, I find it hard to believe that he would give it up (low stakes)
b) when is he going to make money with his stone cold nuts? If I check the turn, which is quite possible, he would have a dilemma of having the nut straight on a 300 pot.
c) similar to my point above, he is out of position. On the river, he has no idea what I would do on the river. It worked out for him this time, but if I had a hand such as KQ or A3, something I don’t wish to bet with , he would’ve wasted his straight.
Not raising the turn there I think is a huge mistake. I personally would’ve bet the turn. The river play depends if you really think your opponent has an ace. In this case I don’t think my opponent put much thoughts into the ace on the river, although I won’t be sure of that. A pro might use that ace as a weapon to check raise, but of course I would’ve folded the river if I was up against a savvy pro.
This might be a lot for people who are relatively new to poker, but this really shows how fascinating poker can be. As simple as a hand is, it can reach many levels of thinking even for an amateur like me. I would love to answer any question as well as further discuss the hand. Leave comments so we can improve each other’s game. :)
My next post would be a lot less intense. Something light-hearted such as fun stuff to do in poker like prop betting or having poker buddies to discuss with. Until next time.
-LOLbear
Turn bet is bad imo. If your intention was to pick up the pot right there, you probably should bet more than half-pot, esp in ssnl with deep stacks. Otherwise you’re effectively building the pot on a ~20% shot at the flush and an A high.
Turn AP, I would have checked through the river. Your river lead is not so much a vb as it is an attempt to take down the pot. What hands could call your river bet that you have beat? If he had paired the flop, how likely would any player have checked/checked flop and turn with draws amok. When the turn came blank I would expect an attempt at the pot after you checked the flop. Your turn bet would effectively weed out any two blanks (this includes big Aces). Since he cc’d, I would likely put him on a draw, straight or (unlikely) flush. When the river comes blank for the draws, and you lead out, what do you expect he will call with that does not have your A beat?
River lead AP, you probably could have and should have folded to the shove. Both of you are deep stacks at 15/30, making an air bluff much more unlikely.
Thank you for your inputs. Like I said I agree turn bet was questionable. Whether or not half pot bets still work in today’s metagame is debatable, and mathematically it should work more than 33% of the time so that’s fine. The only real problem I have with it is that I have a draw I am reluctant to give up if he shoves on the turn.
We discussed checking on the river on AIM :p. The turn bet does effectively weed out 2 blanks but big Aces is not out of question yet. The problem is the reason you don’t think he has a pair is because of cc. It seems like you can’t put him on a hand that beats AQ at that point either. VBing there might lure a weak pair to call, which I find more likely than running into a monster. It kinda becomes what’s more like: him having a monster hand, or him calling with a weak hand? The former is just so unlikely that I still need convincing to check the river.
In retrospect, agreed with River fold.
Aw. Maybe I should start a blog too. -_-
For any standard player, big Aces would more than likely be out from the turn bet. The only reason I would think otherwise is if the other guy sees your leading out as a sign that you have some mediocre hand you want to protect and figures he’ll bluff at a scare card, but really only good players would do that. (Hindsight remark: as per results, we can see this guy is massively donk for checking his monster on the river, thus probably would not be thinking on this level). With such a draw heavy board, I can’t think of a correct reasoning for playing any paired hand so weakly unless he was planning to call through blanks and fold to any scare card (river which it did with an A).
In any case, you yourself said you had no read on this guy. The question is not whether we can “put him on a hand that beats AQ”, but rather can we extract any more value from this guy based on his range. I find it more likely from his weak weak weak play that he has no hand he will call you with and would rather see what he had then take a stab at the pot.
The vb itself is not a bad move, likely my second option at this stage with all circumstances considered, as you can sort of tell this guy is a bad player (limp-call OOP hu almost always bad) and its reasonable enough to think that you have the best hand at this point with the ccc. The call after that kind of is, esp with deep stacks considered.
Well my argument is that whether it’s more likely for him to have me beat or for him to call with something weaker. Right now still I think a player who checks here miss out a chance to value bet because it is so rare (at least IMO) that he beats me here vs him donk calling me or calling weak pair (very likely hand IMO to ccc) to check me up.
The value bet is ok if u can fold to a shove there imo.
I should’ve folded to the shove :-/
intense psychological battle. you should post up little lesson plans of helpful tips you think are worth learning
Poker is so crazy it would be hard to tell someone where to start. I’ll try though although I am still struggling like crazy after playing for so long.